Is rugby a dying sport?

Plus: Boxing mashups, and more media rights disappointment for European football...

October 30, 2023

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IN THIS WEEK’S NEWSLETTER…

1️⃣ Are there storm clouds on the horizon for rugby?

2️⃣ Is the stream of crossover fights undermining boxing’s reputation?

3️⃣ Yet more rights deal woes for European football leagues (and is D2C the cure?)

➕ Gen Z viewing habits (spoiler - they like TikTok)…

🏉 IS RUGBY DYING, OR JUST CONCUSSED?

South Africa 🇿🇦 beat New Zealand 🇳🇿 on Saturday to clinch the Rugby World Cup.

It was a hugely cathartic win for a nation that hasn’t had much to cheer about economically in recent times.

But it doesn’t hide the fact that all is not well in the land of rugby.

Whilst the World Cup, along with the Six Nations, still proves a significant draw, the sport hasn’t expanded globally in the way that others have. Major nations like England, Australia, and Wales have regressed on the pitch in recent years, and ‘upcoming’ nations like Italy, Georgia, and Japan have not kicked on to the extent that had been hoped, both in terms of playing success and audience growth.

Despite decades of working to grow the game in new nations, the group stage still consisted mostly of the same old teams thrashing the likes of Namibia and Chile by scores like 96-0 and 71-0. Hardly the best way to win over new fans to the sport.

At club level, clubs in many countries are struggling (3 clubs in the English top flight have gone out of business in the last 18 months) and the competition structures are as disjointed and confusing as some of the game’s arcane infractions.

A few days before the World Cup final, a study was released that linked playing rugby with a vastly increased likelihood of developing brain disorders, with 68% of the brains studied showing signs of CTE.

And to make matters worse, EY then released a report explaining that Rugby (Union) was not even in the top 20 sports for Gen Z engagement…

Whilst other sports (notably basketball, MMA, and Formula 1) have been wooing fanbases in growth markets like Asia and North America, and increasing their popularity with young audiences via social media, Rugby’s popularity is struggling to see significant growth outside a select few ‘tier 1’ nations, and even then participation is declining in many of them, which could lead to problems down the line.

On the plus side, World Rugby has announced plans for a new ‘Nations Cup’ competition and an expanded World Cup, which aims to address some of these imbalances.

🥊 BOXING IS A MESS… OR IS IT?

What does it say about boxing when Francis Ngannou, in his first ever professional bout, is able to hold the heavyweight champion of the world for 10 rounds, knocking him down once and (arguably) deserving the win?

Before the match, many were calling the bout’s entire existence a farce. Now, some are asking whether the ease in which Ngannou has taken to the sport undermines the sport as a whole.

But the truth is that, whatever the purists say, the number of viewers for this years’ bouts are higher than they have been since Floyd Mayweather was boxing.

The estimated PPV revenue from the weekend’s exhibition fight is $125M (according to Sportspayouts.com), with Ngannou taking home more from this single fight than he earned in his entire UFC career. For comparison, that would make it more lucrative than all but one UFC match ever staged – and all this for a match branded a ‘joke’ by many, with no belts at stake.

Whilst many scoff at the recent trend for influencer boxing matches, it doesn’t look like they are going anywhere – the recent KSI/Tommy Fury fight got 1.3M PPVs, comfortably more than all but a handful of UFC fights. It’s likely that the influencer bouts are a big reason why boxing’s popularity seems to be increasing so much with Gen Z audiences (see previous graph).

For a US-centric, not so objective take on the situation, Bloody Elbow did an interesting take on why ‘boxing has been kicking MMA’s ass’ in 2023.

💪 BROADCASTERS CALL FOOTBALL’S BLUFF… AND IS D2C THE ANSWER?

Sportel, one of the biggest sports industry shindigs of the year, took place in Monaco last week, with an unofficial theme of ‘technology meets content’.

Specifically, much discussion centred on how to enhance the sports viewing experience – such as through innovative partnerships (like the Toy Story Funday Football or LaLiga’s partnership with EA Sports) new camera angles, AI-generated overlays, commentary systems and direct-to-consumer content platforms.

As background to all this, the broadcasting rights revenue growth that many leagues have relied on, is threatening to dry up.

Some of the major European football leagues have been struggling just to maintain their rights deals. Ligue 1 and Serie A in particular made a lot of noise about increasing their rights revenues for the upcoming cycles, only to have to backtrack when broadcasters called their bluff and decided they weren’t interested. Mike Darcey explains it far better than I could in his recent post.

❓SO WHAT NEXT?

One of the remedies increasingly being talked about is the possibility of direct-to-consumer platforms to replace or enhance the broadcast revenues. Serie A has threatened to go the direct route, but no-one is really buying it. And whilst this could be an interesting route in the long-term, it’s also a very expensive one to get right (see - DAZN) and the whole unbundling phenomenon means many of the old customers are probably never coming back.

That said, the major American sports don’t seem to be having quite the same concerns – NBA is preparing for its own right sales, and is looking for $75 billion for it’s next ten-year cycle. It’s a 250% increase on the current deal but one that, with ESPN, Amazon and Apple reportedly set to fight over, many analysts think could become reality.

Notably, the NBA League Pass and NFL Game Pass have also proved a lot more successful as D2C initiatives than anything done by European football leagues.

NBA Slam Dunk Contest Participants Revealed - Fastbreak on FanNation
📖 BEDTIME READING

Footballco (the company behind Goal.com) released their ‘Future of Football Fandom’ report (you can download it here), which focuses on behaviours of the mythical ‘Gen Z’ fanbase.

There’s no earth-shattering revelations, but it serves as a useful reminder for some of the major trends in global viewing habits:

  • Asia and North America are the major growth markets, with smaller fanbase increases or stagnations in more established (ie. European) markets;

  • There is a growing trend towards following players rather than teams;

  • Sport is increasingly being consumed as ‘micro-moments' rather than full matches, with short-form video platforms like Youtube, Instagram, and TikTok benefitting over more text-base platforms such as Facebook, Whatsapp, and X;

  • Young audiences see sport as entertainment above all else, with crossover events proving particular popular;

  • Gaming is a huge and growing , with an increasing number of young fans getting into sports because of a love of video games (rather than vice versa).

🎯 JOB VACANCIES
🗓 UPCOMING EVENTS
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